The Martingale System
The
Martingale system is one of the more popular betting systems designed by casino
players looking for an advantage over the house. Countless betting
systems have come and gone over the years, but the most persistent
system is
the Martingale betting system – probably because it looks so
believable upon cursory inspection.
The basic idea behind the Martingale betting system is to continually place wagers on a 50/50 bet, such as the pass line bet in craps. Whenever the bet wins, you collect your money and bet again. Whenever that bet loses, you double your bet on the next round. You continue doubling your bets until one of them wins, and recoups all of your previous losses and more.
In theory, this betting system will keep you from ever losing because all you do is double your bets until you win. For example, look at the following set of bets:
| Bet | Outcome | Net Win |
| $5 | Loss | -$5 |
| $10 | Loss | -$15 |
| $20 | Loss | -$35 |
| $40 | Loss | -$75 |
| $80 | Win | $5 |
The Problem with the Martingale System
After just four bets, your $5 wager has already turned into an $80 wager and the most you can come out ahead is $5. Does it really seem like a good idea to risk $80 for the chance to come out $5 ahead?
“Well,” some people will argue, “what are the chances that I even lose four bets in a row? If I keep betting, I have to hit eventually!”
Actually, you’ll lose four bets in a row quite often. If you are playing at a craps table that gets through sixty bets an hour, you’ll run into a four-loss streak an average of four times every hour.
If we extend the example further, the numbers become even more dismal:
| Bet | Outcome | Net Win |
| $80 | Loss | -$155 |
| $160 | Loss | -$315 |
| $320 | Loss | -$635 |
| $640 | Loss | -$1275 |
| $1280 | Loss | -$2,555 |
| $2,560 | Loss | -$5,115 |
| $5,120 | Win | $5 |
See how fast those losses add up? On average, you’ll hit a nine-loss streak once every four hours. It is not as rare as you think to lose ten or more bets in a row. Sure, you will also go through decent win streaks with the Martingale system, but your wins will be tiny.
The problem is that you will eventually either run out of money or hit the table limits. Sure, if you had an infinite bankroll and there were no table limits you could use the Martingale System and succeed with it. But you don’t have an infinite bankroll and the tables do have table limits.
The statement “I have to hit eventually” is a perfect example of Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy is the belief that in a random event (such as the flip of a coin) repeated instances of the same outcome make a different outcome more likely.
For example, if a coin is flipped five times and every time it comes up heads, it would be incorrect to think that tails is “due” to come up soon or that it’s any more likely than 50% to hit. An independent, random event such as the flip of a coin or the toss of a dice is in no way affected by the results of previous trials.
In the end, you’ll just end up doubling your bet repeatedly on what is still a 50/50 bet (minus the small house edge of course). By using the Martingale system in craps, you’ll experience a lot of tiny wins and the occasional devastating loss.
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